Friedrich Merz’s Challenge: Leading Germany in a Time of Political Upheaval
The results of Germany’s national election have placed Friedrich Merz in a pivotal position. His conservative Christian Democratic Union (CDU), along with its Bavarian sister party, the Christian Social Union (CSU), secured first place with 28.6 percent of the vote, making him the most likely candidate to become Germany’s next chancellor. However, despite this victory, the election results reveal a fragmented political landscape, with surging support for the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) and growing economic and geopolitical challenges that will define Merz’s tenure.
Merz’s Path to Power and His Political Philosophy
Unlike his predecessor, Olaf Scholz, or even Angela Merkel before him, Merz has never served in a government role. The 69-year-old politician, who once left politics to work in the private sector as the chairman of BlackRock Germany, presents himself as a classic conservative leader in the mold of Ronald Reagan or George H.W. Bush. His platform emphasizes traditional social values, economic liberalization, and strengthening Germany’s defense.
His victory speech underscored a sense of urgency. “The world isn’t waiting for us,” he declared. Merz aims to govern with efficiency, pushing for swift action on national and European affairs rather than prolonged coalition negotiations. This is especially pressing as Germany faces economic stagnation, an immigration crisis exacerbated by lone-wolf terrorist attacks, and deteriorating relations with its most critical ally—the United States.
The Political Landscape: A Divided Germany
Germany’s election results highlight growing divisions in the country’s political spectrum. The CDU/CSU coalition secured 208 seats in the Bundestag, but the most notable shift came with the rise of the far-right AfD, which surged to second place with 20.8 percent of the vote and 152 seats—its strongest performance since its founding. This marks the highest level of support for a far-right party in Germany since World War II. The AfD’s gains were particularly pronounced in eastern Germany, where its anti-immigrant and nationalist message resonated strongly.
The Social Democratic Party (SPD), led by outgoing Chancellor Olaf Scholz, suffered a humiliating defeat, dropping nearly 10 points from its 2021 victory to just 16.4 percent. This collapse positions them as a junior partner in any potential coalition. The Greens secured 11.6 percent, a slight decline from the previous election, while The Left (Die Linke) doubled its support to 8.8 percent, performing particularly well in Berlin. However, the breakaway Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) narrowly missed the 5 percent threshold required to enter the Bundestag.
Meanwhile, the pro-business Free Democratic Party (FDP), which triggered the election by abandoning Scholz’s coalition over budget disputes, suffered a devastating defeat. With just 4.3 percent of the vote and no directly won constituencies, it is expected to lose all 91 of its seats in parliament. FDP leader Christian Lindner announced his resignation from active politics following the results.
The Challenge of Forming a Coalition
Merz now faces the difficult task of assembling a coalition government. With 208 seats, the CDU/CSU needs 316 seats for a majority. While Merz has ruled out working with the far-right AfD, despite aligning with them on an immigration bill in January, he must still navigate a delicate balance.
His most viable path is a “grand coalition” with the SPD, which would create a majority of 328 seats. Such an alliance has been formed before under Merkel and previous administrations, but it would require compromises on economic and social policies. Merz’s push for corporate tax cuts and welfare reductions contrasts with the SPD’s commitment to social protections, making negotiations complex.
A three-way coalition with the Greens and The Left could be another option, but it would be a fragile arrangement given their ideological differences on taxation, immigration, and energy policy. The Greens support higher taxes on the wealthy and investment in renewable energy, while The Left advocates for more social spending. In contrast, Merz has championed nuclear power and a tougher stance on immigration.
Germany’s Shifting Relationship with the U.S.
One of the most pressing challenges facing Merz is Germany’s deteriorating relationship with the United States, particularly after Donald Trump’s re-election as U.S. president. Initially, Merz believed he could work with Trump, as both leaders share a commitment to slashing bureaucracy, cutting taxes, and opposing progressive social policies. However, the recent Munich Security Conference revealed a widening rift. Trump’s advisors openly praised the AfD, a move that alarmed Germany’s political establishment and raised concerns about U.S. intentions in Europe.
In response, Merz has taken a bold stance on European defense. “My absolute priority will be to strengthen Europe as quickly as possible so that, step by step, we can really achieve independence from the USA,” he stated. This shift marks a significant departure from Germany’s postwar reliance on American security guarantees and signals a push for a more self-sufficient European defense strategy.
Germany’s Role in European Defense and Ukraine
Merz’s assertive foreign policy stance comes amid ongoing tensions in Ukraine. The war remains at a critical juncture, with Vladimir Putin’s influence over Trump raising fears that U.S. support for Ukraine could wane. European leaders, including French President Emmanuel Macron and British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, are actively engaging with Trump’s administration to prevent a major shift in U.S. policy. Meanwhile, Merz has been clear that Germany will continue to back Ukraine. “Now more than ever, we must put Ukraine in a position of strength,” he said, emphasizing that Ukraine must play a role in any peace negotiations.
For Merz’s vision to materialize, Germany will have to significantly increase its defense spending. While the country finally met NATO’s 2 percent GDP target in 2024, plans to raise it to 2.5 or even 3 percent would require tens of billions in additional funding. To achieve this, Merz will likely have to reform Germany’s strict “debt brake” law, which limits public borrowing—a move that could put him at odds with fiscal conservatives in his own party.
AfD’s Growing Influence and the Threat to the Establishment
While Merz works to build his coalition, the AfD is positioning itself as the main opposition force. Buoyed by its historic 20.8 percent result, the party’s leaders have framed their success as a “victory for the people.” Co-leader Alice Weidel has warned that any coalition excluding the AfD would be “electoral fraud,” and the party has already begun mobilizing for the next election cycle.
The AfD’s rise represents a growing populist wave in Germany, one that mainstream politicians on both the left and right must address. If Merz and his coalition partners fail to govern effectively, the AfD stands ready to capitalize on any missteps, particularly on immigration and economic issues.
What’s Next for Germany?
With the election behind him, Merz must move quickly. Kaja Kallas, the EU’s foreign policy chief, has urged German parties to finalize a coalition as soon as possible to ensure stability in Europe. Merz himself has set a deadline of Easter 2025 to form a government.
As he steps into office, Merz faces one of the most complex governing landscapes in modern German history. With a fragile coalition, a resurgent far right, economic uncertainty, and strained international relations, his leadership will be tested from day one. Whether he can navigate these challenges successfully will determine not just Germany’s future, but also the stability of Europe as a whole.