As the November 5 US presidential election approaches, the latest polling data reveals a highly contested battle between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump. The New York Times/Siena College survey, conducted from August 5 to 9, indicates Harris is currently ahead of Trump by four points in the pivotal swing states of Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan. This development signifies a significant shift in momentum, with Harris gaining a pronounced edge in these critical battlegrounds.
Kamala Harris VS Donald Trump
In these states, Harris leads Trump by 50% to 46% among likely voters. This surge in Harris’s support follows President Joe Biden’s withdrawal from the race and his endorsement of Harris, driven by concerns about Biden’s age and cognitive abilities. Before Biden’s exit, his final national polling position had him trailing Donald Trump by 45.2% to 41.2%.
At present, Nate Silver’s national poll aggregation shows Harris ahead of Trump by 47.1% to 44.6%, with Robert F. Kennedy Jr. receiving 4.2%. This marks a modest improvement from Harris’s previous lead of 46.8% to 43.7%. The change in state polling, particularly in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan, indicates a strengthening of Harris’s position, although Donald Trump continues to hold advantages on key issues like the economy, inflation, and immigration.
The most recent ABC News/Washington Post/Ipsos survey echoes these trends, showing Harris with enhanced support on several critical attributes compared to Biden. Harris has made significant strides in public views regarding her health, mental acuity, honesty, and empathy—areas where Biden had previously underperformed.
Despite these advances, Donald Trump continues to dominate on economic and immigration matters. Polls show Trump leading Harris by 9 points on the economy and inflation, and by 10 points on immigration. Harris’s strengths on topics such as healthcare, gun control, and Supreme Court nominations provide her with a competitive advantage in other important voter concerns.
The Electoral College map currently has Harris in the lead with 281 electoral votes compared to Donald Trump’s 235, with 22 electoral votes still up for grabs. Silver’s model estimates a 53.5% likelihood for Harris to secure the Electoral College and a 65% chance to win the popular vote, though these figures have slightly decreased from earlier projections.
Harris’s selection of Tim Walz as her vice-presidential candidate has been positively received, in contrast to Trump’s choice of JD Vance, which has not resonated well with the electorate. Recent polling indicates that Vance’s controversial remarks and tepid reception have not been advantageous to Donald Trump’s campaign.
As the Democratic National Convention draws near, Harris is expected to experience a temporary boost in the polls. If Harris holds a lead of four to five points nationally after the convention, it would solidify her favorable position. However, a narrower lead might affect her chances of winning.
Economic indicators present a mixed picture. While headline inflation has slightly decreased, core inflation remains a concern. Real earnings have declined, which could influence voter sentiment.
In Australian political news, recent polls show a closely contested race between the Labor Party and the Coalition. The Coalition has gained a slight advantage in primary votes, whereas Labor’s support has waned. In New South Wales, there is substantial backing for new legislation aimed at preventing “no grounds evictions.”
Overall, the US presidential race remains dynamic and fiercely competitive, with both candidates focusing on consolidating support in key swing states and addressing significant issues as the election approaches.
Axelrod’s message to Democrats is one of patience
He advised those celebrating Harris’ slight lead over Trump in national surveys to temper their enthusiasm. Although Harris has made significant strides in improving the Democrats’ standing through her campaign, Axelrod warns that the party still faces significant challenges, especially following Joe Biden’s unexpected withdrawal from the race and the recent debate performance where Trump dominated.
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