Should U.S. be concerned about their Extreme Weather?
We should be concerned about how U.S. weather is behaving. Earlier this month, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) issued a cautionary forecast suggesting that the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season could potentially be “one of the busiest on record.” This prediction is underpinned by a trend of increasingly severe weather patterns, which are being driven in large part by climate change. As sea temperatures rise and other effects of climate change become more pronounced, the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events are surging, leading to an escalation in both the frequency and the financial impact of such disasters.
A consensus is emerging among key institutions such as the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST), the National Institute of Building Sciences (NIBS), and industry groups like the American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE). These organizations are underscoring the urgent need for communities and federal disaster recovery agencies to adopt a more holistic approach to disaster management. This approach involves not only assessing the costs associated with repairing infrastructure but also considering the broader implications on functionality, economic stability, and overall community resilience.
Current building codes primarily emphasize life safety, as pointed out by Maria Lehman, the former ASCE president and vice chair of the National Infrastructure Advisory Council. However, with the availability of unprecedented federal funding for infrastructure projects, there is an opportunity to shift the focus towards smarter investment strategies. Aspasia “Sissy” Nikolaou, who leads the earthquake engineering group at NIST, highlights the importance of asking targeted, insightful questions to ensure that infrastructure decisions are well-informed and tailored to specific needs, rather than relying on a generic, one-size-fits-all solution.
As of August 8, the United States has endured 19 climate or weather-related disasters, each causing damages exceeding $1 billion. This reflects a notable increase compared to previous decades, with NOAA reporting an average of eight such disasters per year between 1983 and 2023. The growing frequency and scale of these disasters underscore the urgent need for improved preparedness and resilience.
A recent study by the National Academies explored the financial repercussions of consecutive billion-dollar storms in the Gulf of Mexico during 2020 and 2021. The study revealed that affected communities faced severe challenges in managing the aftermath of each disaster while also contending with pandemic-related issues such as supply chain disruptions and loss of life. The compounded effects of these overlapping disasters exacerbated existing socio-economic and environmental disparities, making recovery even more difficult.
For instance, Hurricane Delta, a Category-4 storm, struck Louisiana’s Cameron Parish in October 2020 while the region was still grappling with the damage from Hurricane Laura. The situation was further complicated by Winter Storm Uri, which inflicted additional damage on already compromised infrastructure, leading to severe problems such as frozen pipes and loss of clean water access.
Nikolaou stresses the necessity for prudent federal investment, stating, “If the money isn’t spent wisely, we’ll continue facing the same problems.” She emphasizes the need for a thorough understanding of the specific requirements of various infrastructure projects, rather than assuming a single approach will be effective across the board. Accurate cost assessments, including indirect costs such as lost work time and economic disruptions, are critical for making informed and effective decisions, according to Lehman, who also serves as the U.S. infrastructure lead for the global firm GHD.
Efforts are ongoing to enhance the comprehensive assessment of disaster costs by organizations like NIST and the World Bank. Lehman points to a recent GHD study, which found broad, though uneven, support for addressing climate change and reducing carbon emissions across different generations and nations.
The geographical and climatic conditions of the U.S. make it particularly susceptible to extreme weather. The country’s diverse landscape—including two oceans, the Gulf of Mexico, the Rocky Mountains, and various climatic fronts—naturally leads to frequent and severe weather events. The addition of climate change into this mix only serves to exacerbate these conditions, as noted by Rick Spinrad, head of NOAA.
The U.S. experiences a wide variety of extreme weather phenomena, from tornadoes and hurricanes to droughts and blizzards. The interaction between warm, moist air from the Gulf of Mexico and cooler, dry air from the Rockies, influenced by the jet stream, creates conditions ripe for severe weather events. Furthermore, atmospheric rivers and nor’easters add to the complexity and frequency of these weather extremes.
Geographical features such as the warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico and the north-south mountain ranges of the U.S. further intensify weather conditions. “The Gulf injects hot, moist air underneath cooler, dry air lifted by the mountains, which is a phenomenon unique to this region,” explains meteorology professor Victor Gensini.
The Southern U.S. faces an especially diverse range of weather hazards due to its geographical features, including hurricanes and tornadoes. Marshall Shepherd, former president of the American Meteorological Society, notes that the South endures the full spectrum of extreme weather events, from blizzards to wildfires.
Human factors further exacerbate these natural risks. Many developments are located in high-risk areas, and substandard construction practices often fail to withstand severe weather events. “Building in high-risk areas, such as barrier islands, and employing inadequate construction practices lead to higher disaster costs,” observes Susan Cutter, director of the Hazards Vulnerability and Resilience Institute.
Poverty also amplifies vulnerability, particularly in the Southern U.S. Individuals with fewer resources are less equipped to prepare for and recover from disasters, leading to greater disparities in resilience. “Safety can be bought,” says meteorologist Walker Ashley, highlighting the divide between those who can afford protection and those who cannot.
The financial repercussions of extreme weather events are significant and on the rise. In 2023 alone, the U.S. experienced 28 weather and climate disasters, each causing damages exceeding $1 billion, setting a new record. Since 1980, the cumulative cost of these events has surpassed $2.6 trillion. This trend reflects a broader pattern of increasing disaster costs driven by both natural and human factors.
Addressing these challenges demands a concerted effort to enhance infrastructure resilience and develop in less hazardous areas. As climate change continues to drive more frequent and severe weather events, the need for strategic planning and investment in robust infrastructure has never been more urgent.
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