For the fifth consecutive week, President Joe Biden’s favorability rating has outpaced that of former President Donald Trump, marking the longest such streak since April of the previous year. This shift follows Trump’s recent felony conviction in Manhattan, as highlighted by a Morning Consult survey conducted from Friday to Sunday. Despite this, the survey indicates that Trump would still narrowly defeat Biden if the election were held today.
Overview
Despite the unprecedented elements shaping this presidential 2024 election, including Trump’s felony conviction and Biden’s historically low support for an incumbent, the race between the two candidates has remained relatively stable over the past six months. Trump maintains a slight but consistent lead nationally and holds clear leads in four of the six battleground states likely to determine the outcome in November, according to the Cook Political Report.
Congressional Races
In Congress, Republicans are favored to take control of the Senate. Democrats have nearly conceded West Virginia following Senator Joe Manchin’s decision not to seek reelection and are defending seven additional seats considered competitive by the Cook Political Report. None of the Republican-held seats in the Senate up for reelection in 2024 are deemed at risk. Control of the House remains uncertain, with Republicans defending 22 competitive seats and the Democrats defending 24 competitive seats.
Policy Implications
The outcomes of these elections carry significant policy and regulatory consequences. If reelected, Biden would likely use executive action to build on his first-term policy successes, particularly in areas like energy, financial services, and healthcare. Executives should expect that in a second term, Biden and his team would intensify efforts to expand the country’s infrastructure and green manufacturing capabilities, as outlined in the Inflation Reduction Act and other key policies.
Should Trump return to the White House, he would likely aim to dismantle many of Biden’s signature achievements while maintaining protectionist policies such as tariffs on goods from China and promoting American manufacturing and “reshoring.” Trump would likely seek to preserve key elements of his Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, which are set to expire in 2025. His administration would also probably move to deregulate several industries and push to eliminate civil service protections for some federal employees.
Campaign Focus
This election is uniquely centered on the past rather than the future, with each candidate reexamining their prior record. Biden will argue that four more years under Trump would threaten democracy and disrupt global alliances while highlighting his major policy accomplishments. Trump will focus on economic and immigration issues, portraying himself as strong and Biden as weak, leveraging the perception of his first term as more successful compared to Biden’s.
Electoral College Dynamics
The Electoral College map now favors Republicans by six points more compared to the last census. This makes the battleground states of Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Arizona, Georgia, and Nevada crucial for both candidates. Biden’s best path to victory involves winning the three Midwestern states, while Trump has multiple paths to 270 electoral votes, particularly if he carries Georgia.
Third-Party Candidates
Third-party candidates like Jill Stein and Robert F. Kennedy Jr. could significantly impact the 2024 election outcome, particularly in battleground states. Stein has qualified to be on the ballot in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, while Kennedy has only qualified in Michigan so far.
Swing Voters
Four groups of swing voters could play pivotal roles: double haters, voters who have abandoned Biden, anti-Trump Republicans, and Independents. Double haters, who dislike both Biden and Trump, could be decisive, as could voters who supported Biden in 2020 but have since shifted their support.
Upcoming Events
Several key events could influence the 2024 election outcome:
- Trump’s New York trial: The verdict could impact his support among undecided voters.
- Debates: Scheduled for June 27 on CNN and September 10 on ABC, with vice-presidential debates expected this summer.
- Vice-presidential nominees: Their selection could sway reluctant voters.
- Conventions: The Democratic Party’s convention in August could highlight internal divisions.
Voter Turnout
Lower voter turnout is anticipated compared to the last three elections, driven by a lack of enthusiasm for a Biden vs. Trump rematch. In a March Gallup poll, 41% of voters reported being less enthusiastic about voting in the upcoming election compared to previous elections.
Implications for Business
Businesses should prepare for increased political volatility and pressure to comment on political matters. A disputed election outcome could exacerbate this pressure, creating a vacuum in leadership and uncertainty. Corporate leaders need to project stability and avoid entanglement in political debates while planning for inevitable changes following the November election.
Mood of the Country
Over 65% of Americans believe the country is headed in the wrong direction, according to RealClearPolitics. Biden’s job approval has been underwater since the summer of 2021, with consumer confidence at its lowest since July 2022. Inflation remains a significant concern, affecting voters’ perceptions of Biden’s handling of the economy.
In summary, as the 2024 election (presidential) approaches, the political landscape remains highly volatile with significant implications for policy, regulation, and business. The election outcome will hinge on a few key battleground states, voter turnout, and the impact of third-party candidates. Businesses must anticipate and adapt to the changing political environment to navigate the uncertainties ahead.
Related Articles:
Donald Trump’s Conviction Sets 1st U.S. Precedent, Following Global Trend
US-India Relations in Light of Modi’s Growing Influence